Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Population Displacement and Migration Patterns in Coastal Communities

Abstract

One of the biggest global issues influencing migration patterns is climate change, especially in coastal regions that are susceptible to flooding, extreme weather, and sea level rise. With its vast coastline and varied climate, Pakistan is confronted with serious climate-related migration problems, particularly in Karachi, Thatta, Gwadar, Badin, and Muzaffargarh. The purpose of this study is to look into how migration patterns in these five specific Pakistani regions are affected by climate change. The study aims to offer a localized understanding of how climate change influences population mobility by analysing socioeconomic and climatic aspects. Data was collected from 350 people in these regions using a cross-sectional survey design. A systematic online questionnaire was used to collect data, and stratified random sampling was used to guarantee representation from every region. Multiple linear regression, logistic regression, and structural equation modelling (SEM) were among the statistical studies. This study discovered a high positive correlation between migratory patterns and climate change variables, such as flooding, temperature rises, and sea level rise. The likelihood of migration was influenced by indirect socioeconomic factors as well as direct effects of climate change. The SEM analysis showed that the association between migration and climate change is somewhat mediated by climate awareness. In conclusion, migration in Pakistan's coastal villages is greatly influenced by climate change, with both the direct environmental effects and the socioeconomic circumstances being important factors. Comprehensive adaption plans and increased climate knowledge are crucial. Climate resilience should be the main emphasis of policy through early warning systems, infrastructure upgrades, and socioeconomic assistance initiatives. Enhancing economic and educational possibilities is essential for managing climate-induced migration and fostering community resilience.